Mexican Citizens Take Up Arms Against Cartels, Army Counter-Attacks

[I'm still struggling with Blogspot problems – no photos or videos, for example – but I will post as I am able, which is becoming increasingly difficult.]

Mexican citizens have banded together in the small city of Antúnez to fight back against the drug cartels, but now have to fight off the Mexican Army as well.

The town of about 8000 in the province of Michoacán, about 75 miles north of the port of Ciudad Lázaro Cárdenas on the Pacific coast and about 300 miles due west of Mexico City, has been beset by a drug gang, associated with the Knights Templar drug cartel (not to be confused with the actual Knights Templar of Masonry), that extorted money, stole property, and threatened to kill citizens. The citizenry's response has been to gather what weapons they could and form a vigilante group, which swept into town and drove out the gang.

The army responded by sending a patrol to Antúnez to disarm the vigilantes.  A roadblock of the citizens sought to prevent the soldiers from leaving, demanding a return of the weapons that were confiscated.  Tempers flared over arguments with the troops, rocks were thrown, and the soldiers opened fire, killing at least two as admitted by government spokesmen (other estimates cite four, another ten).

The first question revolves around why the government responded to the citizens as opposed to the drug cartel.  After all, this sounds very much like a Latin version of the Battles of Concord and Lexington, in an area that is a particular hot spot in the drug war.  One unofficial source put forth the theory that the arms that the citizens used were supplied by the Jalisco cartel seeking to move into the territory.

Mexico has rather draconian firearms laws that prevent citizens from owning rifles and particularly pistols, and like so much in Mexico it depends to a great extent on connections.  I expect that I do not need to belabor the point about the American Second Amendment.

The drug cartel war in Mexico is bloody and will likely become bloodier still, particularly if the citizens are pushed to the extent of taking up arms not only against the crime syndicates but the government that has been so ineffective and corrupt.

The area of Michoacán has always been a separate element in Mexican culture.  Even in times before Cortés, the brutal Aztecs were defeated when they tried to conquer the related Nahuatl natives.  The Aztecs declared that since the people of Michoacán were "cousins", there was no need for conquest and moved their attention to the south instead.

Government officials would do well to remember the uprising of  La Cristiada or the Cristero War of the late 1920s, when the government of Plutarco Elías Calles sought to forcibly suppress the church.  The uprising was fought in the same area, and memories run deep.

Police Deaths On Duty Decline for 2013

I have returned to the contrived trappings of civilization, but not from my usual sojourn in the wooded or rocky wilderness left to the great Pacific Northwest, but from the confines of my own home.  All of the family – all of it – came to visit, the offspring and grandchildren, and now all of the spouses and betrothed, and their friends.  Never such a dear and sizeable horde has dwelt beneath our roof.  It is a delight to see them all, even if it be through the haze of exhaustion.

Topics galore are built up and awaiting my disquisition, hungry as my vast public must be for my sundry opinions.  (Why else, Dear Reader, would you spend a brief nonce drifting over these words?  Welcome.)  I will respond as circumstances permit.

 

The first item here that caught my eye was from the Seattle Post-Intelligencer ('intelligent as a post' – was it Dave Barry?) that briefly speaks of a sharp decline nationally in the deaths of policemen on duty.  (Is there a current politically correct term for 'policeman' that doesn't offend the practiced sensibilities of feminists?  I don't care.)  This is good news, certainly, but I can't resist a bit of analysis.

Specifically, the study from the National Law Enforcement Officers Memorial Fund (NLEOMF) states that in 2013, the number of law enforcement officers – "federal, state, local, tribal and territorial" – who died in the line of duty fell to 111, compared to 121 in 2012 and 169 in 2011.  [Note: corrections officers are included in the tally.  There are some who draw distinctions between corrections officers and patrol officers – not so here.]  This is the lowest total number of LEO deaths on duty since 1959 (110).

Within those figures for 2013, they break out the number of deaths due to "firearms" (as opposed to "traffic" and "other") which this year came in at 33.  This is the lowest number in this category since 1887 (27).

Traffic-related incidents accounted for the highest number of fatalities at 46, and the "other" category clocked in at 32, including 14 who died of heart attacks.

Some observations:

The NLEOMF study cannot resist the use of percentages.  Statistics are highly manipulative and meanings can be fungible, particularly involving numbers this low.  (A single death, of course, is a tragedy, but here we are speaking of just numbers, compared to the population as a whole or the population of LEOs, some 795,000 in the US.)  Thus, comments such as a reported drop of 4% in traffic-related deaths from the last year (from 48 to 46) seem rather silly, a rounding error, and bring to mind such observations that an economist uses decimal points to prove that he has a sense of humor.

The comparisons in the article are to the numbers of only one or two years ago.  But 2011 saw a spike in numbers, slightly up from the total of about 155 in 2010, but much higher than 2009 with about 128.  Then again, 2007 saw a spike of about 190, up from about 160 the year before.  In other words, the numbers are highly volatile and reasons for numbers in this relatively small category subject to any number of explanations.  (A sharp rise of 240 deaths in 2001 was due no doubt to the 72 officers killed as a direct result of the attacks of 11 September, listed in the "other" category.)  An examination of the study itself, presented only as a brief aperçu, gives one a picture of how varied the numbers can be from year to year.

One hopes that the trend continues, but trends always continue until they stop (a social version of Newton's First Law).

This does not deter the NLEOMF from claiming that the drop in traffic deaths and deaths by firearms can be attributed to their push for greater safety considerations, and they may be right though I feel the results are inconclusive.  Traffic-related deaths may be down due to more communities enacting restraints on police pursuit of fleeing criminals – a controversy that raises the question of more crimes committed by the criminals that get away.

(I remember many years ago in Corpus Christi, speaking with an older gentleman who witnessed a police traffic accident.  This was back in the days when sitting on one's front porch was common, and late one sultry evening he saw a police car come flying off the highway exit in front of his home and crash while attempting to make the sharp turn at the immediate intersection.  The news reported that the policeman was in hot pursuit of a fleeing suspect, but the gentleman smilingly disagreed with that analysis, telling me that he never saw any other car that time of night.  Perhaps, he said, the policeman in question was enjoying the unwritten privilege of making up his own traffic laws and came to suddenly realize why the standard limitations apply to us all, but the public at large was spared the real explanation.)

When we see pursuits on cable news channels, we are joining the action after the full force of police cars and particularly helicopters are in place and the criminal is by then only running out the clock until he is captured.  How many criminals escape outside large urban areas that can afford such logistical, personnel and communications support?

Admittedly, the first thought that came to mind was the Fox Butterfield Fallacy, a term coined by James Taranto of the Wall Street Journal after the series of articles by the New York Times reporter who raised the preposterous question of why the incarceration rate in the US continued to rise despite a drop in crime.  The NLEOMF study examines only the number of police fatalities, but does not address the crime rate.

The way that the categories are delineated needs some adjustment.  Last year, two officers were stabbed to death while a third was killed by a bomb (as it so happens, in a small city about 50 miles north of here).  These three are listed in the "other" category, distinct from the "firearms" list.  But these three were nevertheless the victims of deadly assaults by criminals.  What is the purpose of the survey: are we focused on police safety, or use of firearms?  Likewise the sub-category of police struck by vehicles: we can imagine an officer struck by a negligent driver while writing a ticket for a speeder he has pulled over, but how many were struck as a result of vehicular homicide, targeted and deliberately run down?  On the other hand, two of the shooting fatalities were accidental.  It seems to me that a category of "deadly assault" would be more appropriate.

As for the "firearms" category, the NLEOMF claims that increased emphasis on protective gear is a factor in the drop, but to give that a proper consideration, we would also have to know the number of police shootings, i.e. the number of police shot who survived.  To understand this as a factor of crime rate, we would also have to know of the number of incidents where police were shot at without effect.  Simply presenting the number of deaths from firearms is inadequate.

The best time of day to be a cop is between 2:00 and 3:00 in the afternoon (no deaths at all), apparently while criminals are resting up from the activities of the night before (the worst time is 11:00 to midnight – eight deaths).  This reminds me that the same early afternoon time period during the Viet Nam War seemed to show a similar plummet in firefights and contacts, reflecting that both Charlie and us Round-eyes knocked off for lunch.  As for days of the week, the worst numbers of fatalities start once the criminals are off their day jobs – Friday (22), Saturday (18), Sunday (16) – though Tuesday oddly enough clocks in at 17.

As for firearm deaths, the largest reason was due to ambush (7, down from 15 in 2012), but the fatalities in response to disturbances was 9 (up from 4), broken into general disturbances (6) and domestic disturbances (the dread of every cop) at 3.  Fatal shootings during traffic stops dropped to 3 from 10 the year before.  But again, numbers this statistically low over a period of only one year are basically insignificant in terms of a trend.

[Note: for some reason, Blogspot is not permitting the posting of illustrations.  Please click on the NLEOMF study to view the graphs.]

Senate Bill Cuts Veterans' Pensions; Democrats Block Fix

The new compromise budget deal worked out by Representative Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin) and Senator Patty Murray (D-Washington), after having passed the House, was discovered to have a provision to cut the pensions of military retirees and disabled veterans. 

The two-year budget agreement is to cut the benefits by some $6 billion over ten years from the pensions of this segment, by pegging any pay increase to the rate of inflation, minus 1%, affecting all military retirees under the age of 62.  Over the course of their retired life, retirees could lose up to 20% of their pension.

 

Sessions, Ryan, Murray

 

Senator Jeff Sessions (R-Alabama) sought to force a vote on an amendment that would halt that provision, and instead close a loophole that allows illegal immigrants to claim an IRS credit for child welfare through the Additional Child Tax Credit.  The IRS paid out some $4.2 billion to people with invalid Social Security numbers in 2010, and the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration estimates that the payout this year to be some $7.4 billion. 

Senator Sessions' amendment was blocked by the Democrats in the Senate, with Senator Murray claiming that the move was a plot by the Republicans to kill the entire bill.  Senator Sessions replied,

By blocking my amendment, they voted to cut pensions for wounded warriors.  Senators in this chamber have many valid ideas for replacing these pension cuts, including my proposal to close the tax welfare loophole for illegal filers, and all deserved a fair and open hearing.  But they were denied.

 

Almost all Democrats voted along party lines to preserve the payouts to illegal immigrants, much of which goes outside the US, and to cut veterans' pay.  The lone dissenter from the Democrats was Senator Kay Hagan, whose state of North Carolina contains two of the largest remaining bases in the US: Fort Bragg and Camp Lejeune, along with a sizeable population of military retirees who tend to settle near military bases for access to retirement benefits.  Senator Hagan is up for re-election next year.

The pensions of civilian federal retirees are not affected.
*****
Update: From Congressman Ryan: A temporary fix has been applied that will delay implementation of the cuts in order to give a special commission on military pay and benefits time "to find a better solution."

The Chinese Economy in Perspective

There has been a rising expectation for the last ten years or so about the rapid rise of the Chinese economy, along with fears that it will soon overtake our own.  A splendid symbolic example is this Reuters photo showing the growth of the Pudong financial district in Shanghai between 1987 and 2013:

        Shanghai 1987-2013, with the new Shanghai Tower building on the right (Reuters/Carlos Barria)

 

But it is best to study the trend as best we can through the lens of the dismal science.  I always think of Truman's quote about how, if all the economists in the world were to be laid end to end, they would still be pointing in all directions. 

Derek Scissors of the Heritage Foundation provides a more Cassandra-like contribution, written as of 2011.  He cites the US unemployment figure then at 9%, just before we were entering what was to be the third "summer of recovery", and it is now lingering at around 7%.  (The press would like you to disregard the wailing about the US economy under Bush when it rose to 4.9% – make no comparisons, nothing to see here, move along…)

One of the most surprising developments resulting from the financial crisis is the belief among ordinary Americans that China has become the world's leading economy.  This view appeared in the roughest times of 2009 and has persisted even though the impact of the crisis has begun to ebb.  US media have frequently conveyed the same belief.  But it is patently absurd. 

Buried within the report is a quick but cogent comparison to the Japanese stagnation, now entering the 23rd year of its "lost decade", with a chart that lays out how Japan's GDP growth increased by 444% between 1971 and 1991, but has increased only 3% since.

Tokyo repeatedly chose fiscal stimulus over reform.  The outcome has been unpleasant.

Indeed, "fiscal stimulus".  The Japanese invented the term "quantitative easing".  There are some other factors to be sure – there always are – such as the fact of Japan's aging population, a situation that the US won't equal until 2035 (with the maximum effect starting to show on the same people expected to put more money into ObamaCare now).  But in general, how has that worked out for Japan, and how successful have we been in implementing the same efforts, despite such inane media drivel such as Chris Matthews simpering about the "amazing economy" under Obama? 

The Japanese notwithstanding, Scissors presents a detailed look at the Chinese management of their economy, from the significant market reform begun in 1978 – experimentation with a capitalist economy under a Chinese Communist leadership – until the party leaders sought to increase its intervention in the market in 2003, fearing an increasing loss of control.  He ends with some sharp recommendations:

Limit federal control of lands to defense needs and preservation of natural and cultural phenomena.

Immediately and sharply cut the federal deficit.

In particular, reduce subsidies of every kind./

Ensure a well-educated and growing labor force.

Last March, even CBS in its 60 Minutes provided a glimpse behind those Potemkin façades in the sparkling new yet empty Chinese cities:

Zhengdong New Area, central district (BI)

Schottenfreude

Ben Schott is not well known on this side of the Atlantic but has gained quite a following in the UK, not large but a quality bunch, for his work initially as a photographer as well as his way with language and his ability to describe matters with a precise amount of pith.  (He described his session while photographing Tony Blair.  As they finished, Blair offered to show Schott his son, then an infant, but Cherie barked at him that they were about to have lunch.  Cherie, like Hillary – often her own worst press adversary.)

Yet Schott is best known for a series of small books – three altogether now – gathered together as Schott's Miscellanies, collections of trivia that deal with the culture of the UK and to some extent with the EU and Commonwealth.  He has since expanded into a series of almanacs.

 

His latest endeavor is published with the delightful title of Schottenfreude (a take on the more common and enjoyable term 'Schadenfreude'), and reflects on how the German language has the elastic capacity to enjoin meanings into words that are simply too tempting not to incorporate into other languages: e.g., Doppelgänger, Zeitgeist, Wanderlust, Götterdämmerung, Katzenjammer, Schrecklichkeit, Schwerpunkt, Sitzpinkler, Gemütlichkeit, Sprachgefühl, Weltanshauung, Weltschmerz. 

Schott's idea is to help along this remarkably conjunctive quality of the language by crafting words that we can immediately put to good use, those words that we have unconsciously sought to use but didn't have at our behest.  Some are admittedly a bit too precise for everyday usage but still enjoyable to know, while others we can put to use in short fashion. 

Some examples which caught my eye:

- Plauschplage (prattle-plague): The pressure to make bantering small talk with people you interact with every day.

- Tantalusqualerlösung (Tantalus-torment-redemption): The relief and delight of perfectly slaked thirst.

- Fingernageltafelquietschen (fingernail-blackboard-squeal): The visceral hatred of certain noises.

- Gastdruck (guest-pressure): The exhausting effort of being a good houseguest. 

- Fingerspitzentanz (fingertips-dance): Tiny triumphs of nimble-fingered dexterity.

- Traumneustartversuch (dream-restart-experiment): The (usually futile) attempt to return to the plot of the dream after having been awakened.

And my particular favorite (the word, certainly not the action), if only for the imagery enticed:

- Dornhöschenschlaf (thorny-lingerie-sleep): Feigning sleep to avoid sexual intimacy.

It promises to be quite entertaining and a welcome source of useful words in general, as well as words of limited application:

- Gaststattenneueröffnungsuntergangsgewissheit (inn-new-opening-downfall-certitude): The certainty that a newly opened restaurant will fail.

Besides the words themselves, the entertainment value of the book is found in the accompanying notes to each of the words.

In time for Christmas ...

(H/T to Never Yet Melted)
 

Thanksgiving with the Troops: Obama Phones It In

The White House announced that Obama was thinking of the troops this Thanksgiving holiday, and showed his concern by phoning ten servicemembers, two each from the Army, Marines, Navy, Air Force, and Coast Guard. 

We were spared the typical breakdown of the recipients by gender, race, ethnicity, and sexual orientation. 

Half of the AP story focused on Obama himself, not surprisingly, reporting that he eschewed the quiet retreat of Camp David in order to remain in the Executive Mansion.  There was no report of who dined with the President and his family, leaving one to ponder who from among the list of usual suspects sat upon his right hand. 

 

A possible family dining tableau

 

There was, however, an extended paragraph about the menu of the Commander in Chief which listed a "traditional" Thanksgiving menu including both turkey and ham.  Left unsaid is the army of White House chefs who prepared the meal.  The list did include some nine varieties of pie to cater to Obama's well-known penchant for that dish. 

The typical menu of the troops down-range was not mentioned either, though it would appear that the modern logistical system supports a healthy attention to preparing some great feasts for troops in the rear-echelon areas.  I can remember on several Thanksgivings during my military career that I squirreled away a Turkey MRE in anticipation of my situation in those instances.  (I see that the system has eliminated – with good reason – the Turkey ration from the inventory.  Let's just say that it didn't have a reliable shelf life.) 

In contrast:

President George W Bush at Baghdad Thanksgiving celebration, 2003

This was the surprise visit that George W Bush paid to Baghdad in 2003 (not his only trip to Indian country), which caused a media feeding frenzy when the press falsely proclaimed that he displayed a plastic turkey.  (The report was a desperation move, trying to find anything to criticize.)  The reaction in the hall when he walked in was loud and euphoric. 

If only our troops in the field could feel as supported today.  Instead they have to be worried about their combat pay and other hazardous duty incentives being taken from them.

Colorado: Another Senate Gun Control Advocate Gone

Colorado State Senator Evie Hudak (D-Arvada/Westminster) has resigned "effective immediately" in the face of a recall drive that previously unseated two of her colleagues.  Hudak was known for her support on a package of highly controversial bills that restricted the rights of gun owners and ended up with several firearms-affiliated companies moving out of state rather than be a target of state laws.

Ex-Senator Evie Hudak (D)

The highly publicized row over the gun control bills drew national attention, not the least reason being its draw on outside sources of funding for the effort.  The recall election, which had never previously occurred in Colorado, initially included her but the effort was dropped for a time to concentrate on unseating Senate President John Morse and Senator Angela Giron, who were successfully recalled last September. 

Those outside funding sources continued to lend support during that previous recall election, seeing a 7-to-1 ratio in favor of the two Democrats who were eventually unseated.  Gun rights advocates saw this as a portentous event with national implications, and no less so locally. 

Invigorated by their success, they turned their sights again on Hudak, who had barely held onto her seat in 2012 against Republican opponent Lang Sias by an official count of less than 600 votes. 

Hudak initially mocked the recall effort, but she has been prevailed upon to resign by the state Democrat party.  If she had been removed from office in favor of a Republican opponent, as happened with her two predecessors, the Democrats would have lost control of the state Senate, which they currently hold by a margin of 18-17.  This maneuver allows Democrat Governor John Hickenlooper to instead appoint her successor and preserve the Democrat edge. 

 

Hudak is also remembered for her cross-examination of a rape victim during the Senate hearings on the gun control bills.  The victim had been brutally attacked – at gunpoint within a hundred yards of the police station – on a college campus and, though she had a concealed carry permit, she was nevertheless unarmed because the campus was declared to be a gun-free zone.  The rapist went to rape two more victims and murder one of them.

Hudak interrupted her to say, "I just want to say that, actually, statistics are not on your side even if you had a gun.  And chances are that if you would have had a gun, then he would have been able to get that from you and possibly use it against you."  Hudak went to say that for every woman who kills an attacker, some 83 women are killed with their own weapon.  (Note the statistical rendering: Hudak uses cases of women who kill their attacker, not instances where the attackers are dissuaded by the fear that the woman may be armed, or who flee when they discover that the woman is prepared to shoot them.  The 83 women "killed" includes a likely majority of suicide cases.)  These hearings also revealed that college campuses are telling women that they should vomit or urinate on their attackers in an effort to dissuade them.  When the victim later asked Hudak how being unarmed makes her safer, Hudak had no reply.

 

Outrage at her remarks and her treatment of the witness was immediate and profound.  A stunned Professor Dave Kopel of the University of Denver law school and author of a textbook on firearms law and policy, called Hudak's remarks "outrageous".  He went on to say that her statements displayed "self-righteous, ignorant bigotry".  Hudak later gave a qualified apology: "I feel so horrible for what some of these people have endured.  I am only looking out for their best interest."

The recall effort, led by Compass Colorado, will persevere in obtaining the needed 18,900 signatures on the recall petition before the deadline of 3 December.  Executive Director Kelly Maher stated that they already have over 90% of the signatures needed, and as of last month some 15% were Democrats.